Brazil's Changing Working Class Reshapes Presidential Run-Off Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazil votes in a presidential run-off on Sunday, and the contest is being shaped by a transformation in how ordinary Brazilians earn a living. In Osasco, a former industrial city now nicknamed São Paulo's "Silicon Valley," closed factories have been replaced by shopping malls and delivery app companies.

The municipality backed left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022 but moved to right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in this month's first round. Bolsonaro won that vote nationally, and every first-round winner since 1989 has gone on to become president.

Gilberto Almazan, who leads a metalworkers' union in Osasco, is visibly anxious about the outcome. He says the city has seen strong deindustrialisation and that the working class is no longer mainly industrial. "Metal, chemical, textile factories disappeared. And five malls were built," he says. He describes the union movement that underpinned Lula's rise as stuck in the "Middle Ages."

Many Brazilians now work as drivers, food couriers or small traders, a trend Almazan calls "Uber-isation." He argues that many such workers want freedom and flexibility over hours rather than the welfare and collective action Lula has traditionally offered. Richard Lapper, who has written biographies of both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, says Brazil industrialised late and deindustrialised early, making the effects sharper. He calls Lula a "victim of his own success."

Unemployment fell to a record low and Brazil was removed from the UN's Hunger Map under Lula's current presidency. Yet Lapper describes a crisis of expectations, in which people are better off but do not feel it because of higher prices, household debt and high interest rates. Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant who grew up supporting Lula, blames the government's "mismanagement" for a heavy tax burden. Hot dog seller Tairine, who used to abstain, now plans to vote for Bolsonaro and says nothing has changed since Lula returned. Lawyer Gisele Bonfim, who voted for Lula in 2022, says Bolsonaro brings "the hope of change."

Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending, ministries and some taxes, while saying he would keep some of Lula's flagship welfare programmes. He has also faced corruption accusations, which he denies. In the first round, 33 million people did not vote, the highest abstention since 1998.

Lula's campaign is responding by mobilising hundreds of thousands of people, particularly students, at street rallies, and says one in São Paulo drew about a million. Aerial footage has spread widely online. Lula, 80, has also used social media to rebut claims that he is past his prime, calling himself the "king of selfies."

Among the poorest, his welfare record still resonates. In Maré, one of Rio's largest favelas, abstention was above average but Lula still won. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother earning under £300 a month, praises his minimum wage increase, two days off for workers and free essential medicines. She doubts Bolsonaro's plan to designate the gang Comando Vermelho a terrorist organisation, fearing police raids like last year's in Rio that killed more than 130 people. Resident Andreza Dionísio blames last-minute polling station changes and "a sense of hopelessness about the future" for low turnout.

Evangelical churches, which about a quarter of Brazilians now attend, are increasingly filling that gap with childcare, employment advice and food. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is being investigated for allegedly obstructing the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro and calls the probe politically motivated, says Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church's values on family and opposition to abortion. Still, the first round looked more like a rejection of Lula than an endorsement of his rival. "There will never be another Lula," Almazan fears, and Lula's fate may depend on whether voters believe he can offer Brazil a new story.